i agree that the number is mostly unknowable and the figures given little more than guesswork. there's just too many variables that are missing. what were the ancient dies made of? were the blanks heated or struck cold? when was it decided that a die
had had enough and could be retired? then to make matters worse there's no saying that the methods didn't change over time
nor that the same techniques for producing coins of one
denomination would be used for another.
however, there is one way to come up with a more valid number. if you were to take two die-linked ants whose die wear state was sufficiently different you could (in theory) make a test die then go nuts and strike lots of coin blanks so that you can determine how many blows it takes to get from point A to B.
still, i wouldn't trust the figure much for the same reasons as noted above: your die and the flans, and the whole manufacturing environment, are different than the originals so there's no way to be sure that comparing the service life of the two is even approximately similar.
ras