Numismatic and History Discussion Forums > Ancient Coin Forum

Price Increases Real or Illusion?

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Ron C2:
I dunno.  I think it's pretty simple. If I see a coin at retail that I want, and I can afford it in my coin budget, I buy it. If it think it's more than I want to pay for that coin, I don't buy it. Often, waiting yields a better deal on the same type later on.  It's not like every coin has a standard price, and condition to a degree is a matter of the bias of the person pricing the coin. 

If I just *have to* pay market rate for a coin, I look for it at auction, as auctions represent supply and demand in their rawest form. About 25-30% of my coins come from the big auction houses, and I know I paid just one bid higher than anyone else wanted to pay for that item ;)

Prices have crept up a lot from what they were 20 years ago when I started out, but the increase depends on the genre, I find. The largest cost jump, from my experience, has been in gold coins - driven in part by a much larger gold valuation in general.

77HK77:

--- Quote from: Joe Sermarini on December 29, 2021, 03:44:59 am ---Prices have been rising the whole time I have been in business. This is not something new.

--- End quote ---

The increase over time with dealers has been a gradual expected movement but I have noticed some really, what I'll call black swan, swings at the auctions. If I'm looking at a more expensive purchased I'll track the coin type through several auctions and dealer sales to get a feel for where I might need to be. A process that's worked well for 20 years until 2021.

One example is a particular new style Athenian Tet. Watching the particular year I'm interested in It dropped previously between US$500-600 plus fees. Until the last two auctions when I thought of bidding.  both this year, both good coins but not spectacular, and it jumped to between 1,100 and 1600 USD - More than double. Is there a sudden surge in desire for New style tet's?

I've seen this same kind of jump in other area of my collection where a lesser quality coin is selling two or three times my expectation. However it doesn't seem uniform, like a group of collectors are driving a particular type. I suspect maybe misguided investments Don't know

quadrans:
In my opinion, the relatively higher price increase that has taken place recently
 has been motivated more by the fear of inflation. People are looking for some
good investment that will hold their value better in the long run. Antique coins,
gold, and silver were thought to be a good investment, so there was greater
demand, especially for rarer, more valuable as well as better quality antiques
and coins. This has shaped the current higher prices.

 Joe

Kevin D:
I agree with Quadrans ^^

It is the fear of what could happen, not the actual current anual inflation rate. Over my lifetime, the US dollar has lost %90 of its value when certain items are used as a gage (i.e. the house that cost $24,000 in 1963 is now well over $240,000). Sometimes it really is 'inflation', but at least as often it is the currency which has lost its value. A $35 ounce of gold is still worth an ounce of gold...there are more people in the world buying gold, but the supply has also increased along with the population. However, now the ounce of gold costs 1,800 US dollars.

Virgil H:
Thanks for the further discussion. I know it isn't simple. Regarding the officially calculated inflation rate in the US, I have always said it is incorrect (far understates true inflation) and I wasn't really blaming higher ancient coin prices on inflation, but it has to be a factor in some ways. I just know that in the past year or so, the coins in my low budget category basically no longer exist except rarely. So, I have raised my budget as much as I can. As an aside on the US inflation calculator, the house my parents bought for around $35K in 1965 is $800,000 now (they sold it in 1967). The brand new car I bought in 1975 for around $3k should cost $12K today with the inflation calculator.  You can't get a decent used car for that.

And, Ron, I totally agree, if I want it and can afford it, I buy it. How long I keep looking depends on both coin and price and that is different for everyone.

Regards,
Virgil

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