Classical Numismatics Discussion
  Welcome Guest. Please login or register. 10% Off Store-Wide Sale Until 2 April!!! Explore Our Website And Find Joy In The History, Numismatics, Art, Mythology, And Geography Of Coins!!! Expert Authentication - Accurate Descriptions - Reasonable Prices - Coins From Under $10 To Museum Quality Rarities Welcome Guest. Please login or register. 10% Off Store-Wide Sale Until 2 April!!! Explore Our Website And Find Joy In The History, Numismatics, Art, Mythology, And Geography Of Coins!!! Support Our Efforts To Serve The Classical Numismatics Community - Shop At Forum Ancient Coins

New & Reduced


Author Topic: Price Increases Real or Illusion?  (Read 2866 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Virgil H

  • Caesar
  • ****
  • Posts: 1404
Re: Price Increases Real or Illusion?
« Reply #25 on: January 14, 2022, 10:45:23 pm »
I think the real estate bubble has to crash at some point. I have no idea how anyone can afford to buy a house these days except where they are selling multi-million dollar homes in NYC or CA and moving to the South where locals are driven out of the market. It is happening all over the South and wages here haven't risen, as well. The stock market should have totally crashed when the pandemic started, but has been propped up since with trillions from the federal government. It will also crash if the fed welfare stops, but that is less likely to happen. Rich folks don't suffer in recessions like everyone else. It is why they aren't called depressions any longer. In a depression, rich folks also lose money, as in 1929. My point is that everything is manipulated for the good of the rich. How this plays into the coin market, I am not sure other than maybe give rich folks more spendable income to buy coins. All I know is I am damn happy I bought my house before this latest inflationary spiral started.

Virgil

Offline nikopolis1

  • Consul
  • ***
  • Posts: 130
Re: Price Increases Real or Illusion?
« Reply #26 on: January 15, 2022, 06:32:03 am »
Great article. (No surprise knowing Robert.)

Shows the huge impact of "outside" factors - be them demand factors such as tax changes or supply factors such as changing international relations or metal detectors- on the ancient coin market.

The only thing I would disagree with is the "end of metal detecting" as an important factor.

In commentary I have read about the situation in Vietnam, there have apparently been three detecting "waves" so far.  In each case the same territory/fields are gone over but with increasingly better detectors.

I am no detectorist, but I have seen how much they miss during archaeological excavations I have volunteered with.  It was regular practice to use the detector in the grave as we were digging down.  Pings would mean there might be something close and we would switch from pick and shower to trowel and hand-spade.  What was interesting to me was how little penetrative power detectors would have in hard soil.  What turned out to be a complete 10th century iron sword didn't register at 1' depth in hard soil.

Many of us have seen stories like the channel island (?) hoard found by two guys using a very large advanced detector.  But I don't think these have been widely used yet.

My point is that I don't know what has occurred in places like East Europe, let alone central and western Europe.  Have advanced detectors been used?  Have we found all the coins?  Or are there potentially new waves to come with future generations of metal detectors?

SC

The simple true is that surface interval to 30-40 cm in depth is beaten prety hard by detectorist and it is very hard to find something.That is why most of the detectorist who detect for profit quit,you ending giving more money for fuel then you are making from coins.Only die hard detetectorist like me remains and they are not that much and ussually not selling what they have found.Not that coins finish ,coins are there,but they are beyond the discrimination range of the detector.It doesnt matter how advance is the detector ,there is physical principals you can not change.Unlles they invent detector on new physical principal  who can discriminate coins beyond 40 cm situation will not change

Offline SC

  • Tribunus Plebis Perpetuus
  • Procurator Monetae
  • Caesar
  • *****
  • Posts: 6068
    • A Handbook of Late Roman Bronze Coin Types 324-395.
Re: Price Increases Real or Illusion?
« Reply #27 on: January 15, 2022, 08:59:35 am »
Like the EM61.  Not saying that sort of tech will be widely used but stuff is out there.

SC
SC
(Shawn Caza, Ottawa)

Offline nikopolis1

  • Consul
  • ***
  • Posts: 130
Re: Price Increases Real or Illusion?
« Reply #28 on: January 16, 2022, 05:02:03 am »
That sort of tech is quite an investment and it is only for big targets,it is useles for coin size targets.Not many around here have such finance and are ready to pay that kind of money on ilusionary perspective of finding a hoard.And 10-20 guys with such tech will not make a big diference in terms of supply of coins on the market.Unless they hit a big hoard like Reka Devnia hoard for example and that is highly unlikely.Needs to be a detector cheap enough so many people can afford it and to go beyond 40 cm mark with discrimination.Only then we will see some increase of ancient coins going to market.In long term supply will be dwindling ,unless some radical change occur .That is only my opinion of coarse ;D ;D

Offline Ron C2

  • Procurator Caesaris
  • Caesar
  • ****
  • Posts: 1055
  • Qvod perierat adhvc exstat nvmmorvm
Re: Price Increases Real or Illusion?
« Reply #29 on: January 16, 2022, 10:36:30 am »
Not all of Europe has been metal detected. Someone earlier mentioned it. But every year it seems there are fewer countries that allow finders to keep and sell freshly dug ancients.

Some legislators seem to believe that every ancient coin in collector circulation is a travesty.
My Ancient Coin Gallery: Click here

R. Cormier, Ottawa

Offline JamesC11

  • Praetorian
  • **
  • Posts: 83
Re: Price Increases Real or Illusion?
« Reply #30 on: January 16, 2022, 01:12:28 pm »
The MOU appears to be having some effect of constricting availability of material, which means higher prices.  Today Forum offers seven items under the Ptolemaic category.  Ten years ago there were ten times as many offered in the same niche.  In 1941 Edward T. Newell could describe Standard Ptolemaic Silver as among the commonest of available ancient precious metal types;  now even very ordinary examples command two hundred dollars and more on the market.  And much of the remaining material is coming to us by way of "Canadians (no offense, eh?)" Granted, Egyptian coinage was intended to circulate only within Egypt and her empire.  But, as Joe suggests, currency are currency, and even Egyptians gotta eat.

Offline Simon

  • Comitia Curiata
  • Procurator Caesaris
  • Caesar
  • ****
  • Posts: 1134
  • Tetartera Collector
    • Byzantine Tetartera
Re: Price Increases Real or Illusion?
« Reply #31 on: March 29, 2022, 08:24:38 am »
All collectables went up in the last two years especially, people had time at home with covid. I work in the art industry, prices went way up on masters, prints have gone up 100% and more, It is an interesting time. The most expensive Picasso print ever sold last month, the new record price after fees is 8 million usd.
The nice part for all of the collectable markets is we will have collectors and new people to talk coins with.
https://www.forumancientcoins.com/gallery/thumbnails.php?album=5633 My main collection of Tetartera. Post reform coinage.

Offline Virgil H

  • Caesar
  • ****
  • Posts: 1404
Re: Price Increases Real or Illusion?
« Reply #32 on: March 29, 2022, 03:17:59 pm »
Simon,
That is very interesting, thanks for your comments. Do you think that a lot of new collectors have entered the hobby in the past couple of years or is it increased activity from existing collectors? Or maybe both.

Thanks,
Virgil

Offline Simon

  • Comitia Curiata
  • Procurator Caesaris
  • Caesar
  • ****
  • Posts: 1134
  • Tetartera Collector
    • Byzantine Tetartera
Re: Price Increases Real or Illusion?
« Reply #33 on: June 10, 2022, 05:46:50 am »

Virgil,

I think with people trapped in there homes, new work ethics and new sets of life priortys have given us a new set of collectors, people with time on their hands can suddenly do the things they wanted to do. Ancient coin collecting became one of the set of  new hobbies.

Covid also changed things, not all in a bad way, more time at home,  more time with family and for some more time on their hands for hobbies in general.

This is alresdy changing, my job has me traveling more than before the pandemic. The rest of my year is nonstop. I am on a ship right now, next week we return to Istanbul. I am looking forward to that.

Simon
https://www.forumancientcoins.com/gallery/thumbnails.php?album=5633 My main collection of Tetartera. Post reform coinage.

Offline Ron C2

  • Procurator Caesaris
  • Caesar
  • ****
  • Posts: 1055
  • Qvod perierat adhvc exstat nvmmorvm
Re: Price Increases Real or Illusion?
« Reply #34 on: June 10, 2022, 07:33:37 am »
In my view. The number of active collectors certainly grew over the 2 years of COVID 19. When people get busy, sometimes hobbies take a back seat, but coin collecting requires the hobbyist to invest significant money into assets. Psychologically it's hard for people to just walk away from something they put money into. Some people may move on to a degree, but I think most will remain at least somewhat engaged in the hobby as life returns to normal.

Pre pandemic it was not unusual for each of us to have our coin collecting interest wax and wane, without disappearing completely.
My Ancient Coin Gallery: Click here

R. Cormier, Ottawa

Offline Virgil H

  • Caesar
  • ****
  • Posts: 1404
Re: Price Increases Real or Illusion?
« Reply #35 on: June 10, 2022, 09:58:17 pm »
Ron,
I just reread this entire thread when your comment popped up. I have been interested in ancient coins my entire life, or at least since I lived in Germany and Turkey when in my later 20s. But, I never really acted on it except in a very small way. When I retired, I got serious. I also do not collect as an investment, but I recently catalogued my small collection that I consider low budget and it is worth a lot more than I expected just based on what I paid for the coins. So, as time goes on, I know that my collection will actually be worth something to my heirs and possibly myself if I need the money one day. It isn't a retirement account, but I am pretty content that it has actual real value. And that makes me happy, even if I will never sell any but some duplicates, etc, unless I really need the money. So, I guess that is the other side of the nature of the coins going up in price the past years represents. I do think ancient coin collecting is, in the long run and the current economic climate, a reasonable investment. I am trying to look at this as a plus situation rather than one where I have a hard time affording coins I want. The $100 coin today may very well be a $200 dollar coin tomorrow.

Cheers,
Virgil

Offline Gregory M2

  • Legionary
  • *
  • Posts: 4
Re: Price Increases Real or Illusion?
« Reply #36 on: June 11, 2022, 05:11:21 pm »
Are these the Athena funds, the doomed Numismatic Fine Arts / Merrill Lynch venture? I recall reading the story in "Fun while it lasted"...a recommended (and quick) read, by the way. Cheap copies on amazon/ebay.

Merrill Lynch hired me as a rookie broker in the early 1990's,
Not long after the Limited Partnership Buble burst.
The sales literature for the Athena Funds featured glossy pictures of gorgeous ancient coins.  A senior broker displayed it prominently in his office, not for aesthetics but as a reminder to NEVER recommend Limited Partnerships to anyone !
The Athena Funds we're a disaster on many levels and serve as a reminder to be skeptical about fractional ownership offers of art, coins or any collectible.

Offline William S7

  • Praetorian
  • **
  • Posts: 15
Re: Price Increases Real or Illusion?
« Reply #37 on: June 16, 2022, 09:49:22 pm »
Older hands here will know of Bruce Mcnall and the role he played in "financializing" coins (and Wayne Gretzky) back in the day. https://www.coinbooks.org/v21/esylum_v21n25a24.html

Concerning the value of coins, I note back in a January post in this thread Joe Semarini made a comment about stocks and real estate having to crash together in order for a broader crash to occur in assets like coin collections. Well, it kind of looks like we could be on the cusp of such a development?


 

All coins are guaranteed for eternity