C. Cassius with Lentulus Spinther, AR Denarius - Price appreciation rate?

[Strato]

I am looking through my copy of Roman Coins and Their Values by D. Sear (Millenium Edition); according to it, a C. CASSI IMP, tripod with cauldron (C. Cassius with Lentulus Spinther, AR Denarius) was priced at 1,400 pounds for VF and 3,500 pounds for EF back in 2000. I note that most other Republican era coins related to Julius Caesar in any way have pretty much quadrupled or more in price since then. Browsing internet auction sites it looks like the C. Cassius with Lentulus Spinther can be had for about 50-75% more than what Sear had the value pegged at back in 2000.

Does anyone have an idea why this is so? Was there a recently discovered coin hoard related to this issue? It seems odd that it would not have appreciated at the same rate as the rest of the coins related to Julius Caesar unless there was a big increase in supply of the coin to the market.

[Strato]

i just noted that this post should probably be in the Roman Coin section.

[Andrew McCabe]

I am looking through my copy of Roman Coins and Their Values by D. Sear (Millenium Edition); according to it, a C. CASSI IMP, tripod with cauldron (C. Cassius with Lentulus Spinther, AR Denarius) was priced at 1,400 pounds for VF and 3,500 pounds for EF back in 2000. I note that most other Republican era coins related to Julius Caesar in any way have pretty much quadrupled or more in price since then. Browsing internet auction sites it looks like the C. Cassius with Lentulus Spinther can be had for about 50-75% more than what Sear had the value pegged at back in 2000.

Does anyone have an idea why this is so? Was there a recently discovered coin hoard related to this issue? It seems odd that it would not have appreciated at the same rate as the rest of the coins related to Julius Caesar unless there was a big increase in supply of the coin to the market.

There has been a big increase of supply to the market. A large hoard that contained very many of these coins, as well as the Brutus type with knife RRC 500/7 (and, presumably, other less rare coins too) has been dispersed in the market over the last few years. The tripod type has gone from being the rarest to the least rare Cassius denarii, at least in EF though still very rare in circulated condition as the hoard contained only fresh struck examples. Prices were initially very high for these hoard coins but have been falling recently. The recent lower priced examples, one can get a reasonable EF for far below those Sear prices, probably seem like bargains in future years. I have the impression that several hundred have been offered in recent years. If that's all there is, that still makes for a scarce (though not rare) type, in comparison to very common types such as Antony legionaries or Caesar elephants which are paradoxically much more expensive in similar condition.

[benito]

I own a Cassius -Lentulus (pic below)bought after the discovery of the hoard  and would gladly  sell it (WP) for 70% of Sear's estimate.
It appears that in circulated condition the coin is very rare so I might use my mechanical fingers
to give it some wear.

[Strato]

Thanks for the replies, very interesting (and funny too). Are there any online references/articles that deal with the coin hoard that has led to the increase in supply of the coin? I am wondering if the price has plateaued or is further supply set to hit the market? I noticed a few months ago a single lot with multiple Cassius Lent. coins put up for auction. This has me wondering just how many more of these coins are out there, set to hit the market.

[carthago]

When that hoard came to market, they were managed by the dealers and let out in dribs and drabs.  They had to agree not to publicly advertise them in fact to keep the prices high as long as possible.  That lasted for a little while and then the damn burst. 

I was told by a dealer who claims to have been initially in charge of releasing the hoard to market that there was somewhere in the neighborhood of 150 Cassius in the hoard, over 200 of the Brutus.  I don't remember the exact numbers (he gave them to me verbally), but that was about the number.  The Cassius issue was a very rare coin until that hoard was found.  Now they are being sold in lots.  You can tell the hoard coins by their basically FDC condition and bright white tone (or anti-tone if you will).   My Cassius is actually beginning to retone a bit but the Brutus is going to be stubborn and remains defiantly bright silver.  So, I bought a beautiful old collection tone Brutus to compliment if not replace the hoard one.

Now I'm waiting for a hoard of Eid Mar's to come to market!

[Andrew McCabe]

...in the neighborhood of 150 Cassius in the hoard, over 200 of the Brutus

Numbers I've heard are, in aggregate similar, but with more Cassius and fewer Brutus. Of course, who actually knows? Perhaps there are many more. I'm not sure it's possible to count them as many have been sold outside the acsearch umbrella. There's no publication, and given the circumstances in which it was marketed, I wouldn't expect one from anywho who saw the hoard intact. It is possible that some numismatic student does a future publication based on publicly sold examples, but it would be necessarily incomplete as we've no idea how many have been sold privately, nor what other coins might have been in the hoard, perhaps worn examples in lesser numbers that wouldn't cause a market blip.

I recently bought an old-provenance GVF example of the Cassius tripod type, seen at auction in 1984 and possibly earlier. I did so because my 'new' coin was not the greatest one, with double striking, so rather than have an unremarkable example of a not-rare type I thought it better to have a remarkable for its provenance older collection example. I'll get rid of my shiny one (and will lose most of my money on it). I chose to buy the old-provenance coin now because the price falls for the new coins set a marker for the pricing of old coins, hence it was inexpensive. As these types are currently cheaper than Caesar elephants (but are much scarcer even post-hoard) remaining pieces will get swept up quick enough. In a decade they may seem scarce again.

Now I'm waiting for a hoard of Eid Mar's to come to market!

That's, scarily, quite plausible. After all we know the issue was large enough given it was struck from plenty of dies, and the few 'new' examples that have dribbled onto the market in recent years, all have similarly bright unworn surfaces and similar corrosion issues (ugly coins, as coins go) that suggest a single find location that someone, somewhere, knows about. Also recall the Koson staters and the pseudo-Mithdridates staters, all attributed to the same battle. As with the Cassius tripod, the Koson type is exceptionally rare in a circulated old provenance condition. The next clod of earth turned over by some tomborolo's spade might unearth quite few more EID MARs. This is in the nature of issues struck before major battles. Were I able to afford the type, I'd try and get an old provenance coin.

[carthago]

That's, scarily, quite plausible. After all we know the issue was large enough given it was struck from plenty of dies, and the few 'new' examples that have dribbled onto the market in recent years, all have similarly bright unworn surfaces and similar corrosion issues (ugly coins, as coins go) that suggest a single find location that someone, somewhere, knows about. Also recall the Koson staters and the pseudo-Mithdridates staters, all attributed to the same battle. As with the Cassius tripod, the Koson type is exceptionally rare in a circulated old provenance condition. The next clod of earth turned over by some tomborolo's spade might unearth quite few more EID MARs. This is in the nature of issues struck before major battles. Were I able to afford the type, I'd try and get an old provenance coin.

I agree, Andrew.  I think it is quite possible that we'll see a hoard discovered in our collecting horizon.  Perhaps one has already been found and the owner has the self control to only let one out every year or so.  I've heard a lot of concerns regarding the authenticity of some of the new Eid Mar making it to market.  Who knows.  I agree with you, though, I would go for an old provenance coin if given the choice. 

I also think that the Cassius coins from the recent hoard will find homes and eventually come back up in value in time.  Hopefully they will tone spectacularly in time too!   

[Jay GT4]

I think it might be time to buy one of those coins, I've put it off long enough!

[Andrew McCabe]

i just received my new, old provenance Cassius tripod. It's a lovely coin in hand, and less expensive than even the worst struck of the new, new Cassius tripods. Ex M&M sale 66, 1984, 477. Here it is! NB not my own photo, it'll look nicer (as in hand, the reverse really looks a lot better) once I snap it myself.

[Sam]

Nice , congratulations , Andrew.

[Andrew McCabe]

Curiously, my new coin has the same obverse (tripod) die as Benito's.

[carthago]

Very nice pre hoard specimen Andrew.  In keeping with our topic, do you know what that did that coin brought in 1984 when it was a significant rarity?

[Andrew McCabe]

Very nice pre hoard specimen Andrew.  In keeping with our topic, do you know what that did that coin brought in 1984 when it was a significant rarity?

I can't find the price realised but the estimate in 1984 was CHF 3500, so presumably including commission it went for at least CHF 5000 and possibly a great deal more. I paid a small fraction of that.

Professor Ted Buttrey at the Fitzwilliam museum in Cambridge looked up the catalogue for me, and added in (reinforcing my own view) "In provenience it's still a hell of a lot rarer than the hoard examples dumped on the market in our own day".

NB that's a correct spelling, provenience, it's an alternate to provenance, means the same.

[Carausius]

A beautiful example of the inherent risk with "investing" in rare ancient coins. If I were writing a prospectus for ancient coin investors, I would include the following statement among the risks: "The number of undiscovered ancient coins, both in hoards and individually, cannot be determined with certainty, but is likely millions of specimens. Hoards of currently rare varieties may be discovered at any time, and such discoveries may materially adversely impact market valuations."

[areich]

Or would you?  

I remember a moderately well-known but kind of shady dealer telling me (his) coins were a great investment, rising in value more than any stocks, I think he said 10% per year. Even if that had been true, I would have had to wait 10 years at least for coins' values to rise to what he was asking for them.

[Andrew McCabe]

I must add, for fairness, that many of the hoard Cassius tripods are absolutely stunning. The trouble I had was that my coin was not stunning, it had a wonderful obverse, the tripod side, but a mashed up reverse. It was still a great coin and someone will love it in the future but it wasn't a stunning example. So my swapping new for old should be understood in that context. Had I a stunning hoard coin of course I'd want to keep it, but perhaps buy an old coin too.

[Strato]

I have found a reference to a "recent coin hoard" in a post from 2007 on another coin forum:
http://www.ancients.info/forums/showthread.php?t=1426

Does anyone know of any other links or online sources to information about the coin hoards "recently" found back in 2007 that contained Cassius or Brutus Lentulus S. coins?

Alternatively, are there any respected numismatic journals or books anyone can recommend for me to research this topic?

Thanks

[Andrew McCabe]

As I noted in a recent post, my non-hoard coin is a die match to a hoard coin; the existence of multiple die matches in what must have been a small issue is unsurprising, and the link between hoard and non hoard coins is reassuring (not that any experienced numismatists have doubted the hoard). For those more familiar with late Roman coins, the  extensive die matches found in groups of Republican coins may seem surprising, but Republican denarii often have the dual attributes if being both rare and frequently hoarded; the former leads to die matches within random groups; the latter attribute leads to groups actually being found. As to other studies, the current status is that there are none, but I understand that some background work is being done on dies of the published sale examples, but when, where and if to be published, I do not know.