Is this Caesar Denarius authentic?

[Theo T]

Hello,
This coin is listed as following :
3.81g and ~18mm
The seller said they bought it around 10 years ago, but they don't have any documentation about it.
Thank you !

[Jay GT4]

Welcome to Forum Theo.  As per the rules we don't allow screening of purchases here. 

The saying is "Know the coin or know the dealer."  If you are unsure of both of those things, then don't buy.

[Theo T]

Hello, thank you for your answer.
It is a coin I bought already, it is on its way to me. I am totally new to coin collecting and I was not very cautious with my first purchase due to my lack of experience. This is why I wanted to have an opinion on whether this coin might actually be authentic or if I made a mistake buying it.
Anyway, real or fake, I learned my first lesson.

[Jay GT4]

Ah, well then, someone will chime I'm sure...

[Diederik]

Hi all,
I see many red flags in this coin: it is two thousand years old and yet the silver looks new. There are also traces of casting and tthat is not a good sign. There is patina, but how to combine that with the bright silver color?
Last flag: it is a coin type that everybody wants, so it will sell at a good price; genuine or fake.

Frans

[Ken W2]

I can’t offer an expert opinion, but as a journeyman collector do think the coin is ok. I offer these observations:
1) dimensions are good.
2) style seems ok based on a review of all examples in Schaefer’s.  I did not find a die match, but it is very close to some.
3) from what can be seen of the edges it appears to be struck.
4) I can’t see any obvious signs of casting. There are a few places you might ask whether there is excess metal, particularly around the dog/wolf head, but it could be from die damage or post strike damage to the coin.
4) the color/brightness doesn’t concern me.  To me, it just appears to have been cleaned with chemicals and mechanically.
5) the lack of any documentation about provenance of this type coin would be a problem to me. 
6) knowing what this coin has been selling for in the last several years, taking all the above into account, and acknowledging I don’t “know the coin,” there are only a handful of dealers I would buy an example of this type from that was not NGC certified. 

[Theo T]

Hello, thank you for your answers.
I have received the coin, here are some more pictures.
Also, if I send the coin to NGC, how accurate can the result be, 90%? 99%?
Let's say they believe it is authentic, is there still a chance it is actually not?

[Kevin D]

Hello, thank you for your answers.
I have received the coin, here are some more pictures.
Also, if I send the coin to NGC, how accurate can the result be, 90%? 99%?
Let's say they believe it is authentic, is there still a chance it is actually not?

My opinion is that NGC will be 98% to 99% accurate when it comes to identifying fake coins. There have been instances when they have mistakenly certified a forgery, but you will do better with them than having your coin authenticated with online photos, which can not be as good as having the coin in hand. NGC will have a lot of experience with this type of Caesar denarius.

I don't see any problems with your coin, and I don't see a match in the Forum Fake Coin Reports.

[Hydatius]

My opinion is that NGC will be 98% to 99% accurate when it comes to identifying fake coins. There have been instances when they have mistakenly certified a forgery, but you will do better with them than having your coin authenticated with online photos, which can not be as good as having the coin in hand. NGC will have a lot of experience with this type of Caesar denarius.

"NGC Ancients is committed to grading only genuine coins, but it does not guarantee authenticity, genuineness or attribution, nor is any guarantee of these aspects implied. NGC Ancients will only holder coins it considers genuine at the time of submission, but it cannot guarantee the authenticity, genuineness, type, attribution or date of any coin it holders."    https://www.ngccoin.com/specialty-services/ancient-coins/guarantee.aspx

Richard

[Joe Sermarini]

Of course they do not guarantee. You pay them $50 or $150 to authenticate a $1000 or $20,000 or $200,000 coin. What sort of guarantee do you expect? Of course they do not guarantee. That would be impossible. The math does not work.

[Dominic T]

If NGC can not do it, how come serious auction houses or dealers (like forvm) could guarantee the genuineness of coins they sale (sometimes for life) ? For antiquities, Sotheby’s and Christies have a limited guarantee of authenticity of five years
DT

[Din X]

I assume that authenticity warranty of dealers and auction means that they honestly think that the coin is authentic and will refund the money in the case that a coin turns out to be a forgery.
It does not mean that all coins they are offering are 100% authentic, no one can guarantee this, we are all humans and make mistakes some are only making less mistakes than others, that is all.
If NGC would warranty the authenticity buyers could possibly ask NGC for a refund on NGC slabbed fakes if they can not get the money back directly from the seller or auction house.
And there is another problem that in some cases the authenticity of ancient coins can be disputed and different respected experts can have different opinions what to do then?

If you buy from forvm and a coin  turns out to be fake you will get the money back as long as the forvm shop exists.

If you buy a NGC slabbed coin form private for example form ebay or anyone who is not giving a lifetime warranty and the coin turns later out to be fake, there are many slabbed fakes, you will have to try to get the money back from the seller which can be in many cases impossible, if you notice it too late there might be prescription or you can not find the seller anymore or lawyer and court costs would be higher thatn the coin value.

If I would have the chance to get the same coin from a reputable dealer or auction house with lifetime warranty or from another small dealer NGC slabbed, I would always pay more to get it with lifetime warranty, NGC will not give me the money back if a coin is fake and I see more than enough NGC slabbed fakes, which will be withdrawn as fakes (if I write them) to be smart enough to know that they make mistakes as we all do.

That it can be good if the experts of NGC have a look at coin additionaly to the reputable dealer or auction house who is selling it can be actually true, the more experts who check the authentiticity of a coin carefully the better, the question is just how much we are willing to pay for this additional service, I honestly do not need it but if it is not significant increasing the price and could pay off if reselling why not.

[Kevin D]

If NGC can not do it, how come serious auction houses or dealers (like forvm) could guarantee the genuineness of coins they sale (sometimes for life) ? For antiquities, Sotheby’s and Christies have a limited guarantee of authenticity of five years
DT

I think it has to do with the math, as Joe has said. NGC has taken in a relatively small amount of money to give their expert opinion on a given coin. The seller of a coin has taken in the full amount that the coin sold for. If the coin turns out to be fake, the seller has the full amount that they can refund without being hurt too badly, while if NGC paid the full value of the coin out, they would be hurt badly.

In paying NGC to give their opinion on a coin, you are paying for the expert opinion of people with years of experience in detecting forgeries. This is a good thing to have and to pay for. It is not a 'refund of the coin's full value guarantee if we make a mistake'.

There is at least one major auction house in the US which was selling NGC encapsulated ancient coins and not guaranteeing the authenticity of the coins. Their reasoning, as stated in the fine print of their auction catalogs, was that they could not guarantee the authenticity of the coin because their in-house experts could not see the edge of the coin well enough, because it was somewhat obscured by the plastic holder. I don't know if this is still the case, as it has been some years since I last read one of this company's auction catalogs. I believe at the time many buyers were not aware of these terms.

[Dominic T]

“I think it has to do with the math“. NGC has graded 70 millions of coins. They are top notch experts, and are right 99.99 % of the time. When they have a doubt about a coin, they refuse to encapsulate it. I would be curious to know how much they charge for high value coins. I did the math: 70 000 000 X cost of grading  / encapsulation = $$$$$$++++
I still don’t understand how they could not give a guarantee. Even if they make very rare mistakes, they would be very very profitable anyway.
DT

[Kevin D]

“I think it has to do with the math“. NGC has graded 70 millions of coins. They are top notch experts, and are right 99.99 % of the time. When they have a doubt about a coin, they refuse to encapsulate it. I would be curious to know how much they charge for high value coins. I did the math: 70 000 000 X cost of grading  / encapsulation = $$$$$$++++
I still don’t understand how they could not give a guarantee. Even if they make very rare mistakes, they would be very very profitable anyway.
DT

My take on the math:
The 70,000,000  number you cited is for total submissions = US, World, Medals, Tokens, Ancients, etc.
NGC does guarantee authenticity of the US coins and modern world coins that it grades.

The internet states:
"Based on available market discussions and analyses, ancient coins represent a relatively small portion of Numismatic Guaranty Company's (NGC) total business volume, which is heavily dominated by United States and modern world coins."

Are you sure your figure of 99.99% is accurate for NGC's success rate in authenticating ancients? The reason I ask is because I have been told by the top numismatist at one of the world's leading ancient coin firms that they miss on authentication between 1 and 2 percent of the time.

In any event, out of total revenue, NGC must subtract their considerable expenses. Most NGC ancient submissions are for the $30 to $60 service. What their net profit is on this I do not know.

[Din X]

......They are top notch experts, and are right 99.99 % of the time....

DT

How do you get these numbers?
Guessing is not helping, I understand that you are a huge NGC fan that is fine but that numbers are not realistic, the better you try to make NGC the worse others (dealers and auction houses) who can not even get close to these numbers will look like in comparison.
We would need to check all the coins NGC has encapsuled so far and then we would have to be able to tell which are fake and which possibly fake and which are authentic.
We have to understand that the better we become the more mistakes we see others make and we will always make mistakes and we can not be experts of all coin emissions!!!
Within the last 3 month I have only managed to get 3 NGC slabbed fake at auctions withdrawn as fakes out of 4, although the fourth one I am confident is fake, too.
And I am not that good and I do not wanna know how many fakes I did not recognize as such.

There are runndown coins, very corroded or worn or unique coins or coins with problems that are very difficult to authenticate, getting there 99.99 % or 100% is only possible if you refuse to authenticate such coins . I am getting asked in difficult cases, sometimes I can help sometimes not,  I tell, that I do not like this or that and  I like this etc or I tell ask experts of this type and sometimes if really really expensive send to IBSCC and/or NGC to see if they will accept it as authentic, it is not helping if a coin which is difficult to authenticate is acctually authentic but that is not accepted by all and so gets wrongly condemned then the buyer has to be refunded and it can be difficult in some cases to get the money back from consignor. There are even wrongly  condemned coins by IBSCC, they will not tell why a coin is in their opinion fake and to lift a condemnation is pretty much impossible.

There are fake polluted emissions with dangerous fakes and emissions with no known fakes.

There are sometimes collections which are pretty much fake free or fake free of course they are easy to authenticate.

A coin is either authentic or fake!

But the experts are sometimes not able to tell correct and will chose the wrong answer or the opinions of experts can de diverging.

Some here think only that it must be always possible to tell always correct if a coin is authentic or fake that is not true!!!


To the Julius Caesar elephant coin, the coin is damaged on the reverse and it is not clear if it is a damaged authentic coin or a damaged cast fake, the pictures are not sufficent enough for authentication. I would aks expert for example at coin fair if they will check (have a look) for free in hand or checking the alloy, if cast the alloy would be worng.

Here are xrf results from authentic Denarii from Julius Caesar

There should be very pure silver 97-99%
Some gold
Some copper
and there can be but needn´t be iron or lead

https://www.acsearch.info/search.html?term=caesar+xrf&category=1-2&lot=&date_from=&date_to=&thesaurus=1&images=1&en=1&de=1&fr=1&it=1&es=1&ot=1&currency=usd&order=0





 

[Dominic T]

“getting there 99.99 % or 100% is only possible if you refuse to authenticate such coins”.
Exactly what they are doing. And I’m not a fan at all. Most of the coin they encapsulate are easy to authenticate . And about the average of mistake they made, you would be a better judge than me. How many mistakes have you seen from them ? For myself as a non-expert, I saw maybe 10-15 coins over the years presented as forgeries. It’s probably a lot more. But they had thousands and thousands of specimens between their hands. So I think 1-2 % of mistakes like it was written above is not realistic at all.
DT

[Kevin D]

So I think 1-2 % of mistakes like it was written above is not realistic at all.
DT

What I meant, but did not write very clearly, is that the top numismatist I referred to was speaking about his company when he stated between 1 and 2 per cent, he was not referring to NGC. My question was: if this company is at 1 to 2 per cent, then what would NGC be at? In my estimation, the company I am speaking of, but which I wish not to name, is very, very good at detecting forgeries.

I feel that NGC guarantees authenticity of the US and Modern World coins they certify because they are able to, as their success rate on identifying forgeries is high enough with these types of coins that they can offer an authenticity guarantee. I feel that they would like to do the same with all the coins they certify, but because ancients are more difficult, the error rate is such that they cannot offer an authenticity guarantee on those coins.

[Din X]

I have looked in my previous posts and database, I have most likely missed some in my database on auction house pictures you can not always see if a coin is slabbed and I do not extra note it if mention because not really important to me.
I have found:

3 Byzantine Solidii fakes (2 transfer die fakes and 1 cast Theophilus)
11 Roman fakes (5 cast fakes, 3 transfer die fakes and 3 modern die fake)
67 Greek fakes (1 cast and the others transfer die or modern die fakes.)

=81


We can only argue about the Philip fake if it is actually enough that a die match got sold by a fake seller the style is the same as on the other modern die fakes of this seller and so very likely form same artist and that no authentic coins are known from these dies if this is really enough for condemnation.

I did not add the 10+ NGC slabbed Athen tetradrachm imitations of which NGC thinks they are authentic and I think they are fake, I own one of these bought as fake but I am not 99,99% sure that they are actually fake there is only evidences in this direction so, SAVETY FIRST.

We have to consider that I only know a small number of the coins NGC has slabbed so far, I only know some of the slabbed coins which were or are offered by dealers online or by auction houses. And that I am only able to recognize some fakes not all, for some I am just not good enough for others I am not familiar enough with the emission or I am lacking required knowledge. The question is how many fakes would a real good or perfect authentication expert find if he/she is verifying all slabbed ancient coins?

If Dominic T(essier? / Ocatarinetabellatchitchix ?) wants I can make a new thread with NGC slabbed fakes here in forvm and show them and explain why each of them is imho without a doubt fake.

I do not have any problems with NGC even a buddy of me Stephen Burton works now for them and I know that Barry Murphy is very good and much better than most dealers or auction house experts but he is still human and makes mistakes and David Vagi is of course good but not close as good as Barry Murphy. 99,99% would mean 1 out of 10.000 which is impossible, especially if I see what fakes they have missed in the past and which ones they are still slabbing (slabs are dateable and I can sometimes see that I coin had been unslabbed at a specific date so it must have been slabbed after this date.)

Cast = identical casting twins/clones and or authentic mother is known, but different weights and casting problems.

Transfer die fakes, individual characteristicas from the mother form striking (copied edge cracks, slippage, double strike), circulation (often scratches) and environment, ghost lines and or cut off letters, were the planchet of the mohter ended and the authentic mother is known.
On some emissions for example Alexander III Staters, they combined transfer dies of different mints and created impossible hybirds.

Modern dies, can be published in BOC or in Literature and no authentic coins knowm from these dies but many sold by fake sellers sometimes impossible die links, wrong weight, planchet, fabric, alloy etc.


I have in my fake collection 4 NGC slabbed fakes, I knew they were fake. 2 cast fakes (several identical casting twins are known) and 1 Transfer die (weight problmes cut off throat, wrong planchet Beirut fake) fake and 1 Bulgarian modern die fake .

We honestly do not know how many fakes NGC is not recognizing as such or how many coins they are wrongly condemning.
And we will most likely never know but 1 out of 10.000 never ever, I do not know anyone that could be even close that good!!!

[Dominic T]

Very interesting datas. I’m not sure a thread about NGC would be appropriated here, we do not want this topic to become a bashing company one. Since B.Murphy is a member here, I would be curious to have his point of view on this subject. Would you consider a rating of 99.9 % accuracy (1 / 1000) more realistic ? Don’t forget they have all the coins in hand, so I believe it should be easier to judge than from pictures.
DT

[Din X]

There are coins which are easy to authenticate reliable and if you only authenticate such coins 1 of 10.000 can be achieved.

NGC is slabbing or had been slabbing (not sure if they still do) fake polluted emissions Chersonesos, Istros, Apollonia Pontica, where you have to know the fakes offered by fake sellers and the known authentic coins and emission specific characteristicas. And they authenticate not so well preserved and difficult to authenticate coins. And they are authenticating ancient imitation, unique coins which are terrible to authenticate. And they authenticate Roman, Greek, Byzantine and other ancient coins there are some many different emissions you can not be an expert for all these coin types and you can not know all the fakes. We are all humans and we have good and bad days and if you have seen many coins at the end of the day the concentration can be down and you make easier mistakes. Sometimes we only realize that a coin or coins from tehse dies must be fake when they are offered by fake sellers and then we look and notice the problems we missed before, I doubt NGC has the time to look what fake seller are offering or were offering in the past but that can be very helpful to recognize so far unpublished fakes.

Because of this you can not even get close to 1 of 10.000!

I get often asked for help to authenticate coin which are difficult to authenticate and I can sadly often not help, only tell what I like or not and to ask expert of this emission, knowing that they will most likely not know too but then I am at least out. ^^

It is not as easy as you think, that a coin is either authentic or fake does not mean that we can actually tell it correct with our knowledge, skills and the information we have.

 

[Dominic T]

Agreed. Anyway we don’t care if it’s an accuracy of 99.99, 99.9, 99 or even 9%…
My point was: NGC is supposedly one of the best company in the world in their area, and they can’t guarantee their expertise ? I’ve been answered to do the math; for me it’s not an argument. I installed a fire alarm system yesterday for a business; it cost them around 20,000 $. Our work is guaranteed. Let’s say we made a mistake in the installation, there is a fire and the building burns: it would cost my boss around 1,000,000 $. Do the math ? Last week I went to my mechanic for my oil change. Cost me 100$. Let’s say he forgot to put the drain plug back; it will cost him 15,000$ for a new engine. Do the math ? The guy who cuts my lawn. He charge me 50$/ week to do it. Let’s say he throws a rock with his tractor in my window and brake it; he’ll have to pay 1,800$ to replace it. It’s in the contract. Do the math ?
Samething with my lawyer, my financial adviser, my dry cleaner, my doctor… Why ? Because they have INSURANCES to protect them in case they make professional mistakes. Every serious business in the universe with confidence in their expertise work this way. Why not the same in our favorite hobby ?

[Din X]

It is a decision of the company and they have their reasons and we have to respect that, so only they can answer.
I assume that most do not know that NGC does not warranty authenticity for ancient coins!
Because they are guessing wrong that they would warranty authenticity as on modern coins , although NGC states clear on their homepage that they do not but who really reads such things, except NGC haters.

Have you read IBSCC decisions, based on the information we had we came to the conclusion that ... and this can not be used at court. And they do not explain their reasons.

German experts have to make a survey how they came to their decison. They will not warranty their decision but you can see their arguments.


My problem is that you can not understand how they made their decisions, I need their arguments to verify if they may have made a mistake or if I may have made a mistake if they have a different opinion than me.


PS: You can ask Barry Murphy on facebook and boards and David Vagi at facebook for free about the authenticity of coins (of course you should have good pictures and all important information about the coin) and it seems like they are so polite to answer even if they migh answer late, that is cheaper than sending coins to NGC. Not sure if they will do this for all who as politely but I know that they helped many.

[Theo T]

Hello,
Small update about the coin
I showed it to some coin "expert"
He weighed it at 3.79g, looked at it through a magnifying glass and concluded that it looked fake to him
I'm pretty skeptical though as he didn't seem to be that much acquainted with the coin type and he didn't compare it to other known authentic coins, didn't examine the elephant or anything but mentioned the edge saying something like the edge was "chipped" or "fractured" or "showed cracks" (not the exact translation as I'm French and he said "la tranche est éclatée")
I thought that edge cracks were pretty standard on ancient silver coins so I don't really understand the conclusion there
Anyways, here are two more pictures, even though they won't add much. I'll send it to NGC and be settled.

[Kevin D]

Agreed. Anyway we don’t care if it’s an accuracy of 99.99, 99.9, 99 or even 9%…
My point was: NGC is supposedly one of the best company in the world in their area, and they can’t guarantee their expertise ? I’ve been answered to do the math; for me it’s not an argument. I installed a fire alarm system yesterday for a business; it cost them around 20,000 $. Our work is guaranteed. Let’s say we made a mistake in the installation, there is a fire and the building burns: it would cost my boss around 1,000,000 $. Do the math ? Last week I went to my mechanic for my oil change. Cost me 100$. Let’s say he forgot to put the drain plug back; it will cost him 15,000$ for a new engine. Do the math ? The guy who cuts my lawn. He charge me 50$/ week to do it. Let’s say he throws a rock with his tractor in my window and brake it; he’ll have to pay 1,800$ to replace it. It’s in the contract. Do the math ?
Samething with my lawyer, my financial adviser, my dry cleaner, my doctor… Why ? Because they have INSURANCES to protect them in case they make professional mistakes. Every serious business in the universe with confidence in their expertise work this way. Why not the same in our favorite hobby ?

It is still in the math. The average cost to replace a broken window in the US is $650. If your doctor makes a mistake, the chances are good that he has charged more than $30 to $60 for the procedure. NGC might be be able to have insurance that covers an authentication mistake...but do you want to pay $500, $1,000, or more to have your coin certified? Maybe they could have a graduated schedule of cost, dependent on the value of the coin. If your coin is worth $200, then you pay $60 for guaranteed authentication. If your coin is worth $10,000 then the cost of guaranteed authentication is what? What would it be for guaranteed authentication of a coin worth $100,000? Who decides what the coin is worth?

Then what happens if one expert says a coin is a forgery and another says it is genuine? There would be lawsuits, not a question of if, but only when.

If I were authenticating ancient coins as a business, like NGC and David Sear, I would structure my business the same way that both of them have: authentication is not guaranteed. If you want to protect yourself against an authentication error, then you can try to buy your own private insurance for it. If you buy such insurance, then you can maintain your policy through the years, in the advent that possibly many years from now, someone determines your coin is a forgery. Then, when your insurance company produces their own expert that states unequivocally your coin is genuine, you can decide who is right and if you should hire a lawyer. The same thing you can do when your lawn mower tells you it was a kid who broke your window with a rock, not their lawn mower.