Priced out of buying new coins?

[Bill W4]

It probably it is just me; but I'm having trouble finding any coins for sale in my price range these days. I used to find decent roman denarius for $100 or a bit less.  They now seem to run $130 t0 $150 or more.   May not seem like very much but the increase is significant to someone on a coin budget. (My wife watches) Just wondering if others have noticed this.  I suppose it's just general inflation  but I'm finding  way fewer coins I can afford these days.

[Virgil H]

I would agree, but I would agree with a caveat. There were times in the past where some coins were more expensive than today. I have looked at a couple over time, including one I got blown away on last night. Using CoinArchives, I wanted to try to see what my max bid should be. Since around 2002, that coin has gone for $180 to $14,000 and what I saw would not indicate that grade was the huge deciding factor (not to justify the two five figure sales). And the high price was a few years ago, not last week. The price that coin went for in its condition last night I thought was quite fair and I wasn't mad I didn't get it (went for $630). The $180 was within a year or two ago and this was one where the auction site did not accept my bid because I would have gone a bit higher than $180 and tried. Knowing I could have maybe had it for $180 or $200 does upset me. That coin was at the lower end of grades, but totally acceptable to me. In general, I do think coins have followed the overall inflation we have experienced the past couple years. When we have inflation, everything goes up, whether it actually should or not. On the other hand, I think some coins, such as owls, have softened in price a bit over the past year. That probably has more to do with demand for a common coin that has always been overpriced, but I don't know for sure.

Virgil

[lawrence c]

With  the major auction houses, I've found that coin prices are all over the map. Some winning bids have been much lower than I would have expected, while other coins hit prices that I found inconceivable. What I find a bit concerning is what I've seen on Ebay from reputable sellers. Very common Constantinians & LRBs that only a few years ago would have brought a couple bucks now commonly are hitting thirty or forty dollars. I would imagine that most of us as beginning collectors started with similar coins before expanding our horizons (and budgets). Potentially pricing out beginning collectors does not bode well.

[Joe Sermarini]

Prices have gone up quite a bit recently. Prices have been going up consistently since FORVM opened in 1997. More desirable types and higher grade coins have gone up faster. Prices for a particular type may drop if a large group comes on the market. Auction prices are often nonsensical, both low and high. Many FORVM consignors buy bargains at auctions and consign, but they likely bid very often, win very few, and better be smart about it. Auctions sometime go for many times more than the coin is worth. All it takes is two crazies.

[Virgil H]

Certainly, Joe has a great pulse on the market and I would agree with all he says from my much more limited viewpoint. I got a newsletter from a major auction house in the mail today that reinforces that. I am sure many of you have received or will receive this mailing piece. I am going to summarize their findings here and, bear in mind this mailing was designed mainly for getting people to submit consignments, I also think it is pretty accurate. And my personal observations added.

They highlight a gold coin of Diocletian. AD 284-305. AV Medallion of Ten Aurei (38mm, 53.65 g, 12h) that had an estimate of $500,000 that went for $2,318,000 that includes buyer's fee. I missed that one. But, holy moly. Anyway, their market opinions:

Greek: overwhelming demand, with Asian money fueling a lot of the demand. I have seen this Asian (mainly Chinese) money in a few auctions where bidders countries were shown. I watch auction live bidding for fun at times, even when not bidding. Chinese money is a factor for sure these days. Since I love Greek coins, this is bad news I have already seen.

Roman Republican: Quite strong. That is better than overwhelming, for sure. LOL. But they are certainly up, too, perhaps even more than this brochure indicates.

Roman Imperial: Strong through Twelve Ceasars. Rebounding nicely in the later centuries. Not really sure what this means, but I think it means Imperials are maybe not as hot overall as some other categories. I don't really buy them except in lots (I bought one fairly large lot of decent late Roman bronzes and billon (100 coins) that was amazingly affordable a couple years ago that would cost three times (or more) today from what I have seen recently). That big lot will leave me working for months when my coin budget runs out, that and Shawn Caza's excellent book. I feel bad for not getting to those yet, except for a couple, but they are there waiting for me.

Roman Provincial: A collector driver market, which is good because it isn't investors as much. Obviously, investors are messing with gold and silver more than bronze, but seems like this is one of those fairly esoteric areas where collectors have more of a chance. Luckily, I actually like Provincials, depending on where they are minted.

Byzantine: Following the overall rising of prices, with the implication that they are behind others, but keeping up with overall trend of rising prices. This makes sense to me.

Celtic: Doing well across entire spectrum. I think this is pretty accurate, Celtics coins have always been high in my opinion. Except potins, perhaps. It is why I don't collect them.

British: Very strong at all price points, especially since Elizabeth died. Makes total sense.

Islamic: Getting much stronger. I look at specific Islamic coins in my journey, although I collect very few. Like everything else, they aren't giving these away.

World: Very Strong. This is so broad, but everything is up, so are these.

United States: Strong

I found this a fair and good little newsletter from one specific auction house. I think it is quite accurate and reflects what Joe said. As a collector, I know what my experience is with the relatively few coins I am interested in, Joe and this auction house have far more of a pulse on what is going on. Bottom line is prices are going up overall. Pretty sure we all already knew that.

Virgil

[Ron C2]

Virgil, I would generally agree with you. I think the current bargain market is in imperial silver, in terms of current pricing and potential upside. Others may disagree.

I also think byzantine solidii are a good buy at present.

[Joe Sermarini]

For a very long time common Byzantine gold in anything below high grade sold for little more than bullion value. They are a little higher than that now. I agree they are a bargain to collect, but I am not sure they are the best investment.

Judaean coins, many of which I believe had been sitting in Jerusalem tourist shops for decades, seem to be flooding the market right now. It used to be impossible to buy from those shops wholesale (at least for me). Those Jerusalem shops would rather keep coins for generations and sell at high retail. Apparently they made no money during COVID and have decided to sell some lots. Types from Israel are actually a little cheaper than they were a couple years ago. The FORVM shop is loaded with them now.