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Author Topic: The Fall of Rome was caused by --Unfunded Goverment Pensions!!  (Read 2234 times)

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Offline daverino

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This article was put out by Martin Armstrong a noted financier, antiquarian and a current guest of the Federal government. (Look up his bio in Wikipedia). I suppose his analysis will seem simplistic to serious students of Roman history but it is interesting nonetheless.

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/What%20Destroyed%20Rome%2005-18-2011.pdf

Offline Andrew McCabe

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Re: The Fall of Rome was caused by --Unfunded Goverment Pensions!!
« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2011, 02:09:47 pm »
This article was put out by Martin Armstrong a noted financier, antiquarian and a current guest of the Federal government. (Look up his bio in Wikipedia). I suppose his analysis will seem simplistic to serious students of Roman history but it is interesting nonetheless.

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/What%20Destroyed%20Rome%2005-18-2011.pdf

Very interesting, and the growing overhang of military benefits may have been one important element. A few other equally simplistic causation factors to consider:
- Failure to invent leveraged banking finance (invented by the Florentines in the 15th century) which allows for less than 100% capitalisation of banks
- Failure to establish government-backed banks which could create reliable token money not 100% backed by silver
- Failure to allow debt-financing of government thus causing overly contractionary monetary policies
- Command-type (Soviet style) economy that is implied by a servile working society giving insufficient incentives for creativity
- A related factor is the move from a freeholder army who needed only a plot of land as a retirement benefit, to a salaried army
- Long term negative balance of payments with the non-Roman world: Money flowed outwards; Silks and Slaves flowed inwards; the latter promoted consumption but not growth.

A subsidiary factor is the sheer lack of silver after the 2nd century BC once Roman expansion stopped. But that could easily have been overcome by proper banking methods, and proper debt-financing provisions.

For Congiarum, Donativum and Stipendium in the early Republic, see here:
http://andrewmccabe.ancients.info/EarlyMoney.html#Congius

daver1ino

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Re: The Fall of Rome was caused by --Unfunded Goverment Pensions!!
« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2011, 07:30:35 pm »
You raise a couple of issues that have long puzzled me. For instance, it seems that the Romans almost invented the first "fiat" money. There is a qualitative difference between the Imperial denarius and earlier silver coins such as those of the Greeks and the Republic which are like small ingots certified for weight and purity. Imperial coins emphasize the issuing authority of Caesar and/or the senate. Not quite the same as modern "full faith and credit" but getting there and debasement follows naturally.

Is "token money" what you mean by coins like the potin or limes denarii ?- useable within a limited area but not at all the same as "real money". Perhaps, in order to redeem wages given in token money, soldiers not only had to be victorious but also force their generals to march on Rome to make the exchange from tokens to silver with which they might acquire a farm or business upon retirement. I am only guessing here but much of the 3rd century turbulence might be thus explained.

My hunch is that a Roman Empire could not have existed without the prior invention of money - but would better banking methods have saved it? Seems doubtful. In the end Rome was a rough, semi-barbarian, point-of the-sword kind of society whereas banking (as we know it) requires something a little different.

Thanks for the references,

Offline Andrew McCabe

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Re: The Fall of Rome was caused by --Unfunded Goverment Pensions!!
« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2011, 09:41:28 pm »
Quote from: daver1ino on May 22, 2011, 07:30:35 pm
Is "token money" what you mean by coins like the potin or limes denarii ?- useable within a limited area but not at all the same as "real money". Perhaps, in order to redeem wages given in token money, soldiers not only had to be victorious but also force their generals to march on Rome to make the exchange from tokens to silver with which they might acquire a farm or business upon retirement. I am only guessing here but much of the 3rd century turbulence might be thus explained.

My hunch is that a Roman Empire could not have existed without the prior invention of money - but would better banking methods have saved it? Seems doubtful. In the end Rome was a rough, semi-barbarian, point-of the-sword kind of society whereas banking (as we know it) requires something a little different.


My reference to token money was to government issued token - usable everywhere because guaranteed by the government, but containing less metal than face value. The bronze coin during the denarius period was almost always a token currency. With a good token currency you always believe that you can exchange, so 16 (17 allowing for money-changers commission) Asses could buy a denarius, even though the metal value of 16 Asses or 4 Sestertii was a lot less than a Denarius in value. If you know you can change it back, then token money circulates perfectly fine. The point about banking as a backup is that Rome might have gone to a gold standard - and issued the silver as token money - if there was a government backed bank which one could go to to convert bronze or silver, on request, to gold. The existence of the guarantee negates the need to use it. And if the bank was reliable enough, mandated with price control such as the US Fed or the Euro or UK or Swiss central banks, then if you have faith in the bank you don't even need to be able to get gold. This is modern banking. In such a modern system, the money-supply (which is a key economic driver) is decoupled from the volume of metal, thus allowing for economic growth not linked to metal supply.

Of course I take your point about the sharp-end of the sword. But Britain in 1650 was an equally crude society, violent, and primitive. By 1850 it was fabulously wealthy and its ex-colonies across the Atlantic would become even more so. One factor must be the banking. The Bank of England was setup in 1694, issuing sophisticated government-backed paper money into a country that had known only bloody civil war for most of the prior century. Those earliest banknotes are still fully redeemable today. The Dutch wealth of the same period was to an extent founded on their Wisselbank - a deposit bank - which was equally reliable. A good banking system can help turn swamp-dwellers and woad-painted barbarians into a modern society. Good contract law and secure property rights are another key factor as they give the incentive to innovate and improve if you know you keep the rewards.

The Romans could have done all this.... At the highest level, whilst I think "unfunded pensions" were maybe one factor amongst many, I get the point that better fiscal management might have avoided the dark ages...

Offline Joe Sermarini

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Re: The Fall of Rome was caused by --Unfunded Goverment Pensions!!
« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2011, 02:19:12 am »
The title of the article "What Destroyed Rome was its Unfunded Government Employee Pensions," clearly indicates its intended "lesson" but doesn't exactly fit the facts or the content of the article.  This is modern propaganda. 

One of the most significant cause for the decline of Rome was numerous plagues that wiped out much of the population, decimated the economy, reduced the tax base, and shrank the manpower pool available for the army. 

Probably the most significant cause was a decline in pride and determination.  In the time of the Republic, Rome could lose legion after legion and just raise another.  The early Roman must have believed they had something worth fighting for.  The late empire made its citizens serfs.  Rome was no longer worth fighting and dying to save.  The only armies they could raise were mercenaries and when the money was gone, so was the army. 
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Lloyd Taylor

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Re: The Fall of Rome was caused by --Unfunded Goverment Pensions!!
« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2011, 03:08:52 am »
....and lets not forget the helping hand of those damned Barbarian hoards and rabble that helped the collapse along the way! :evil: However, it is interesting in so far as until this time I'd naively imagined that unfunded pension liabilities were a product of modern financial engineering.  Those  damned Romans were ahead of the curve, yet again! 8)

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Re: The Fall of Rome was caused by --Unfunded Goverment Pensions!!
« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2011, 03:41:12 am »
Probably the most significant cause was a decline in pride and determination.  In the time of the Republic, Rome could lose legion after legion and just raise another.  The early Roman must have believed they had something worth fighting for.  The late empire made its citizens serfs.  Rome was no longer worth fighting and dying to save.  The only armies they could raise were mercenaries and when the money was gone, so was the army.  

Too true!  I am currently reading The Fall of Carthage by Adrian Goldsworthy.  As much as anything the book is an assessment of the evolving capacity and capability of the opposing sides.  In the first Punic War after a number of naval disasters the citizens, rather than the government of Rome, funded the rebuilding of the navy, effectively each citizen extending an interest free loan to the broke government, all out of patriotic duty and desire to overcome the enemy (at all cost).  Contrast this cultural ethos and approach to that of the AD Roman society.  

I recommend the book to all you Romanophiles, for despite the title it dwells more on the Roman motivation and drive than the Carthaginian failures and it provides a nice contrast to the AD Roman society and culture.... republicanism at its ethical and moral peak versus imperialism at its degenerate worst.... Roman society, values and culture were anything but static and that is the story of both its success and failure.

Offline gallienus1

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Re: The Fall of Rome was caused by --Unfunded Goverment Pensions!!
« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2011, 06:58:31 am »
Thank you daverino, for an amusing and interesting article. As we can all agree, the fall of Rome had many factors, but the principle factors that generated the others are the real issues. I’m sure that Joe is right about the social climate of the Late Empire being self destructive. Why indeed should people make an effort to save a system that treats them badly and seems destined to do the same for their children?  Isn’t that why the Soviet system collapsed in our own time?
The failure of the monetary system was surely a symptom of a greater social failure. I believe the concentration of power in individuals that were not accountable for their actions to the society they supposedly served was the real reason. The Roman system was doomed from the start of the Principate. It was hopelessly naïve to expect that a dictatorial system will not degenerate into unchecked self interest.
Some Emperors tried their best to truly serve their people, retaining their humanity at the top of a rotten system (Vespasian, Marcus Aurelius and Probus spring to mind) but they could not counter balance the actions of lesser men who such a system always turns to monsters. 

Best Regards,
Steve

Offline Robert_Brenchley

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Re: The Fall of Rome was caused by --Unfunded Goverment Pensions!!
« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2011, 04:29:55 pm »
The only thing is, the west collapsed and the east survived. Doubtless these things contributed, but at least one of the key factors has to apply to the west alone.
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Offline slokind

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Re: The Fall of Rome was caused by --Unfunded Goverment Pensions!!
« Reply #9 on: May 23, 2011, 05:00:21 pm »
Indeed.  Fergus Millar is another of my favorite authors.
I'll forbear emphasizing economic factors in the shift of wealth and importance to the Greek-speaking empire.  And ceaseless military expenses.
Pat L.

Offline Joe Sermarini

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Re: The Fall of Rome was caused by --Unfunded Goverment Pensions!!
« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2011, 05:05:33 pm »
The east definitely had a lot more gold and much bigger walls.  
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Offline Fides

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Re: The Fall of Rome was caused by --Unfunded Goverment Pensions!!
« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2011, 07:32:22 am »
It is baffling that he thinks there is more information and data on the activity of ancient minting and redistribution than in the medieval period. On the contrary, the records for the activity of the medieval English mint survive to this day. This is the case for many other European nations. This information has actually been used by scholars keen on predicting the accuracy of die estimation in lieu of actual evidence, data or figures from Roman or Greek mints. Quite simply all of our work in gauging the extent of mint activity in ancient times is guesswork informed by partial evidence and later examples. Mr. Armstrong clearly hasn't done his research properly, as he simply assumes that his hope that the litigious Romans will have left some accurate trace in writing of their mint production will prove to be true...

Problems of research plague the work. Most of all he seems to believe that sources such as Dio can be read with minimal critical analysis. On top of that, his understanding of archaeology is at times woeful. He is correct in saying that incidences of hoarding increase during times of known unrest, but he is naive in assuming that hoards were only buried in these circumstances. In the case of the hoard he discusses, popular opinion holds quite correctly that it was more of a community savings pot, for people to dip in and out of when it pleased them, than a hoard buried in a panic. Additionally, that Armstrong believes that hoard data provides accurate information about circulation is also wrong! The extraordinary nature of hoards belies the fact that we cannot be sure of the typicality of the range of coins they contain. Much like we cannot be sure of the degree to which Pompeii, the best preserved Roman city, was typical of all Roman cities.

Coming back to die-estimation as a way of calculating the number of coins in circulation, modern experiments have revealed that dies can strike as little as 2,000 or as many as 75,000 coins before failing. Kenneth Harl notably used this modern evidence in conjunction with records from medieval mints to prove that any attempt to accurately use die estimation is deceptive. Thus, how can we justify Armstrong's strongly modern economic approach to a coinage, the extent and size of which we cannot even be sure? This fact makes his attempts at 'accuracy' - i.e., graphs, charts, etc - look more hollow, more designed to give an air of authority to Armstrong, than anything else. The 'viable economic models' he talks about on p.4 are more likely to deceive us of the nature of Rome's coinage than actually reveal helpful information about it - such is the nature of the imposition of models on history.

In light of this, his assumption that the ancient and the modern are favourably comparable is annoying, misleading and belies a lack of fundamental understanding. How can it be accurate, fair and productive to assess antiquity on issues it never even knew, or conceptualised? Money in the Roman world was too deeply embedded in certain social institutions, too closely linked to idealism, minted and its conceived use so different to our own that any comparison is anachronistic. Armstrong ridiculously spouting off that we should judge Rome for failing to implement a uniform pension plan is a perfect example of this; looking at the manner of all ancient governments (not just the Roman) reveals that their perceived set of 'responsibilities' towards their subjects - soldier or civilian - did not extent to social security or pensions. The donatives and payments paid to the army should not be seen in the light of any sort of pension plan, and the fallacy of using modern economic terminology in analysing what were basically bribes should already be apparent. To attempt, then, to make the connection between extraordinarily complex modern economic devices - pension plans, social security, government spending, etc - and imperial bribes to soldiers is indicative of Armstrong's poor level of research.

On a final note, the last few pages of the document prove nothing; they are just a long (and rather boring) narrative, which is annoying, simply listing debasements and payments and drawing on no evidence to prove anything. Returning to his use of the sources once more, we need to point out that these are payments we can't really talk about for sure because they are talked about by often dubious sources.

I'm sorry for my short essay there, but when I'm writing a dissertation on the stuff and an article appears like that I just have to vent my rage...

Offline Joe Sermarini

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Re: The Fall of Rome was caused by --Unfunded Goverment Pensions!!
« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2011, 04:57:04 pm »
Quote from: Fides on May 26, 2011, 07:32:22 am
I'm sorry for my short essay there, but when I'm writing a dissertation on the stuff and an article appears like that I just have to vent my rage...

Rage, rage against the dying of...good journalism. 
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