The
RPC coin you link to, illustrated also by
Varbanov 4300, is certainly an old
fake, since there was already a specimen in Queen Christina's
collection (died 1689), and since Volker Heuchert observed that the
obv. die of this coin is also known from genuine coins of
Commodus at
Ankara in
Galatia, a very unlikely die link if the Nicopolis coin too were authentic!
But the existence of this old
fake doesn't mean that your coin too must be false. There is no reason Nicopolis ad Mestum might not have a coin for
Commodus with
his bust facing left, unless of course that same
obv. die can be found on coins of a distant
Asia Minor mint, as in the case just mentioned! However the
rev. legend of your coin does present problems, as I stated: the surprising abbreviation NEIK, the misspelled
MET, and the illegible further
legend in
exergue. Another difficulty is that according to
Komnick the city's name on all other known coins is always preceded by
Ulpia, the name that it took from its founder
Trajan.
I think your coin presents difficulties, but should not yet be condemned as false. Maybe new specimens with a clear
legend or discovery of other uses of the same
obv. die will eventually clarify the coin's correct
attribution and the question of its authenticity.