Both scenarios are proven fact, which ironically means that it is impossible to tell for sure which is the case with any given coin.
Fairly current, or contemporaneous, holed coins have been found in
Roman graves. They are usually associated with a child's
bulla. A
bulla is a necklace for a child. It
had apatropaic powers - that is it was believed to be able to protect the child from harm and evil through its magic warding powers. The
bulla was removed when a child finished adolescence. In addition to a specific small capsule holding a charm - which is itself known as a
bulla - the entire
bulla necklace could have many items on it like a modern charm bracelet. They are known with coins, beads, bits of shell or ostrich
egg, small
egyptian figures, etc. Though not proven, I suspect that the coins were also believed to have apatropaic powers.
Your coin would combine the powers of
providentia with that of the Sun god, through
his high priest
Elagabalus.
However, holed coins are also found in graves, including as
part of necklaces or earrings, as late as tenth century Magyar graves - and maybe even later. In these later graves they are not limited to child's graves and we don't know exactly why they were used.
There are two clues with yours. A few hundred km beyond the
limes and its
good condition.
My guess would therefore be used by a "barbarian", fairly contemporaneously with its issues - i.e. maybe sometime in the mid to late 3rd century. But for unknown reasons - jewellery, magic protection, luck?
Shawn